A few points to note from yesterday at Cheltenham
Now the dust has began to settle from the action at Cheltenham, here are a few notes regarding the performances, including a few to keep an eye on over the next few months.
Botox Has a bright future ahead of him
Gary Moore has already unleashed a serious 3 year old in Goshen, who spread-eagled a field at Sandown Park on Tingle Creek weekend to post up an impressive display, and he may have another nice arrow to his 2019/20 season’s quiver in Botox Has, who posted a taking performance to land the opening JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle.
Having been second in the Grade 2 Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle at the November Meeting to another exciting youngster in Allmankind from the Dan Skelton yard, he relished the change onto the more galloping New Course and an easier class than previous to stay on stoutly up the famous hill to score by 3 lengths to another recruit from the Skeltons in Langer Dan.
The form that comes from the Prestbury was held on the Friday when Repetitio took the Catesby Handicap Hurdle in stylish fashion, in addition to this victory, so that race could be an instrumental nod when tipsters, bloggers and the like are looking for an edge or pivotal moment from the season to try and find the winner of perhaps the Triumph, Fred Winter, or even a late season handicap that undoubtedly one or two of these will be sent into.
Whether the winner of this contest goes for the JCB Triumph Hurdle or the Fred Winter at the Festival remains to be seen, but wherever he runs he could be a nice sort that could potentially run a big race at a serious set of odds. He is currently trading between 16/1 and 33/1 for the Triumph, so may be worth getting an ante-post on if his potential is to be believed.
Don’t give up on Elixir and Pentland at all
To many who saw the International Hurdle, it may have been disheartening to see the Triumph Hurdle winner Pentland Hills and Tolworth Hurdle winner Elixir De Nutz finish out of the first 3, given the hype that surrounds the two and the target of the Unibet Champion Hurdle that both have been stated to be aimed at come March.
However, it must be noted that the first 3 home all have posted form over further than the two miles this contest was run over.
The winner Call Me Lord was recently pushing If The Cap Fits all the way to the line in the 2m 3f Coral Hurdle at Ascot, with the latter prevailing by 1/2L. Furthermore, Call Me Lord won the 2018 Select Hurdle at Sandown Park over 2m 5f, so therefore has an element of stamina, even if the 3 mile trip of the 2018 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot was beyond him somewhat.
The second placed horse, that was only just touched off when flying up the Cheltenham hill, was Ballyandy, who although was the winner of the 2016 Champion Bumper at the Festival, has shown a liking in recent runs for a trip, running a half a length third to William Henry in last season’s Coral Cup, a sixth in the 2m 3½f Silver Trophy at Chepstow in October this year, before finding 3 miles just too far in the Bet 365 West Yorkshire Hurdle last month when 9 3/4 lengths behind The World’s End. Jockey Sam Twiston-Davies had expressed concern about dropping him down to the minimum trip given his form at an intermediate trip in recent times to his trainer father Nigel, but Nigel was confident he could run a decent race, and he almost stole the race and caused a 12/1 surprise in the process, finding only Call Me Lord too strong.
Finally, Ch’tibello ran the talented Supasundae to 1¾l in the Aintree Hurdle over 2m 4f in April, a few weeks after scoring over course and distance in the County Hurdle at The Festival. He stayed on well up the hill on his seasonal debut, just being held within the final furlong.
Monsieur Lecoq just got 4th place at the line, ahead of Pentland Hills, with Elixir De Nutz fading within the final furlong to be seventh out of the 8 runners. As a result, Pentland Hills has drifted from 7/1 to 10/1 after the race, but now can be backed at 15/2 with the likes of Bet365 having shortened again, though 10/1 is available with the race’s sponsors Unibet.
Elixir De Nutz on the other hand can be backed at a massive 50/1 with the likes of Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, but a shorter 33/1 with Sky Bet and Betvictor. Both horses will improve for the run, and it is as though horses aren’t allowed to be tired at the end of their first run out for months, or to have a bad day at the races. Both horses have trainers who know what they are doing and will make sure their welfare is always top priority, and will aim to get their charges to the top of their games for the big one in March.
Good Boy Bobby has a big race in him – it’s just a matter of time
Good Boy Bobby was just beaten by Brewin’upastorm on their seasonal and chasing debuts at Carlisle in October over 2 miles, but went one better against Ravenhill Road at Wetherby in mid November over the same trip. However, yet again he ran into another good one at Cheltenham in Mister Fisher, who passed him on the run in up the hill to score by 1 1/4l in the Class 2 Ryman Novices Chase over a further 4 furlongs.
A 5lb weight difference was another negative for his chances of victory, but he stayed on up the hill with determination. It may be worth chancing him up in Grade in something like the Dipper on New Year’s Day back at Cheltenham, but it may be worth looking at him potentially running in a major handicap, potentially the Brown Advisory and Maribelle Stable Plate at the Festival, as he would sneak in at a lower weight, and then might be able to exploit that to his advantage.
His rating of 146 is only 1lb higher than Road To Respect’s rating when he hosed up in the 2017 Brown Advisory. If connections wish to go down this route, it may be worth going up in Grade to potentially keep his mark at a low enough mark to use when the time is right. Alternatively, next year’s BetVictor Gold Cup could be a long term target for next season.
Beau-reason for Northern’s success? Apparently not.
When a horse shows a vast improvement in form, questions are asked about the horse themselves and the quality of the opposition. When that opposition enables the race to be a highly competitive field, suspicions fall on the performance of the winner. Northern Beau was 3lbs out of the handicap and ran flatly on return at the course the previous month, on her first run back after a wind operation.
The trainer Michael Scudamore was interviewed after the race by the stewards to explain the run, and it was clear to him that the mare had improved for the better ground, being soft in this case, and was benefitting from the pipe opener the previous month.
It remains to be seen whether or not this was a blip, but the performance was a taking one that left jockey Brendan Powell beaming afterwards, so all will have to be revealed with regards to whether or not this horse is on the upgrade, and if so, it may pay to follow her.
Redford on the road to being best staying novice hurdler?
Redford Road had never seen a yard beyond 2m 5f before he started the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over 3 miles, but he stayed every single yard of the trip to beat a leading novice in Fergal O’Brien’s Champagne Well by half a length.
What makes it even more remarkable is that Fergal is operating at a 40% strike rate, despite the fact he has also moved yards to a new purpose built facility at Ravenswell Farm near Andoversford in this time. Add to this the form of leading intermediate hurdler Thyme Hill, who beat Champagne Well last time out at Cheltenham in the Grade 2 Ballymore Novices Hurdle, and it can be seen that Redford Road may well be up to the task of adding to the list of horses who have taken this race and the gone on to Festival Glory in the same races’ namesake. Unowhatimeanharry and Kilbricken Storm have been the victors in recent years of this race, registered as the Bristol Novices Hurdle, and the main event on the Friday of the Festival, and this one is aiming to replicate the feat.
It could be seen that a trip up to Doncaster for the River Don over 3 miles next month may be the next port of call for him, or a drop back in trip for the Ballymore ( Classic ) Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham on the same weekend over 2m 5f. He could be the leading British hope of keeping the Albert Bartlett in British hands, and can be backed between 16/1 with Bet365 and 25/1 with Unibet, amongst others.
